白白花钱

    哥本哈根--在全球变暖问题上,我们言辞激烈但是没有什么冷静的理性。这非常重要,因为京都议定书已经成为所制定出来的最为昂贵的全球公共政策,而2009年底在哥本哈根举行的跟进措施将会打破所有的记录。我们最好还是摆正位置,因为目前我们更有可能白白花钱。

    一个明显的例子就是欧盟最近制定政策到2020年减少二氧化碳排放20%。当然,许诺总是要比落实容易,这一点对于欧盟尤其如此。但是,即使遵守诺言,所获得的效益是否就大于成本呢?令人好奇而并不令人惊讶的是,人们并没有认真予以讨论。

    在整个二十一世纪认真贯彻执行减少欧盟二氧化碳排放20%只不过将会把由于全球变暖而造成的温度升高在本世纪末的时候推迟两年,从2100年推迟到2102年。这一变化可以忽略不计。但是其成本绝对不可不计。欧盟自己的估计是大约每年600亿欧元,这肯定还是低估了 (它先前的估计几乎是两倍) ,因为这要求欧盟用最为聪明的方法减排。

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