Monetary tightening Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Грядущая финансовая волатильность

ЛОНДОН – Инвесторы, покупающие облигации, – с Марса, а руководители центральных банков – с Венеры. По крайней мере, такой вывод можно сделать из негативной реакции рынков облигаций на признаки приближающегося окончания чрезвычайной, мягкой монетарной политики последнего десятилетия. Между тем, рынки рискованных активов продолжают игнорировать красные флаги, наблюдаемые на рынках облигаций. Насколько они правы?

В большинстве развитых стран инфляция сохраняется сегодня на низком уровне. Однако центральным банкам США и Великобритании, которые ранее были настроены мягко, сейчас не терпится свернуть монетарную политику стимулирования, которую они проводили с тех пор, как в 2008 году разразился мировой финансовый кризис.

Центральные банки, занятые инфляционным таргетированием, исходят из того, что в условиях стабильных инфляционных ожиданий причиной изменения уровня инфляции являются изменения в уровне простоя в экономике. Когда избытки мощностей сокращаются (а именно это сейчас и происходит: уровень безработицы сейчас намного ниже усреднённых уровней за этот бизнес-цикл, и даже за несколько десятилетий в случае США и Великобритании), инфляция со временем начинает расти.

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