Monetary tightening Drew Angerer/Getty Images

即将到来的金融波动

伦敦—债券投资者来自火星,央行行长来自金星——这就是债券市场对于过去十年来的反常宽松的货币政策正在消退的消极反应给人的印象。但是,风险资产市场无视债券市场所竖起的红旗。这是对还是错?

如今,大部分发达国家的通货膨胀仍然很低。但此前美国和英国等国家的鸽派央行都在蠢蠢欲动,要收回它们自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来所采取的宽松的货币政策。

以通胀为目标的央行认为,当通胀预期稳定时,通胀的变化就来自经济中萧条(slack)量的变化。当萧条减少时——现在就是如此,当前失业率远低于商业周期平均水平(在美国和英国更是处于几十年来的最低水平)——通胀最终会上扬。

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