Monetary tightening Drew Angerer/Getty Images

التقلب المالي القادم

لندن ــ مستثمرو السندات من المريخ ومسؤولو البنوك المركزية من الزهرة ــ أو هكذا يوحي رد الفعل السلبي لأسواق السندات حيال إشارات تحذر من التخلص التدريجي من التيسير الاستثنائي للسياسات النقدية الذي شهده العقد الماضي. لكن أسواق الأصول الخطرة تتجاهل الإشارات التحذيرية والأعلام الحمراء التي تلوح بها أسواق السندات. فهل هذه الأسواق مصيبة في هذا التجاهل؟

لا تزال معدلات التضخم اليوم منخفضة في كثير من بلدان العالم المتقدم، إلا أن البنوك المركزية في دول كالولايات المتحدة وبريطانيا، وهي مؤسسات كانت تظهر في السابق بمظهر الحمائم، تتلهف الآن لتقليص السياسات النقدية المتساهلة التي تبنتها منذ اندلاع الأزمة المالية العالمية في عام 2008.

تفترض البنوك المركزية، التي تركز على استهداف التضخم، أنه عندما تكون توقعات التضخم مستقرة، فإن أي تغييرات في مستويات التضخم إنما تنشأ عن تغيرات في حجم الركود في الاقتصاد، وحينما يتلاشى الركود ــ كما هي الحال الآن ــ مع تراجع البطالة حاليا إلى ما دون المعدلات المتوسطة خلال الدورة الاقتصادية (بل وبمستويات هي الأدنى على مدار عقود عدة في الولايات المتحدة وبريطانيا) ــ فسيفضي ذلك في النهاية إلى ارتفاع التضخم.

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