Frank Augstein/Getty Images

Das Rätsel der fehlenden Inflation

NEW YORK – Seit Sommer 2016 durchläuft die Weltwirtschaft eine Phase moderater Erholung, und die Wachstumsrate steigt allmählich. Was sich zumindest in den hochentwickelten Ländern nicht erhöht hat, ist die Inflation. Die Frage ist: Warum?

In den USA, Europa, Japan und anderen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften wird die jüngste Wachstumszunahme von einem durch die anhaltend lockere Geld- und Fiskalpolitik bedingten Anstieg der Gesamtnachfrage befeuert sowie durch die wachsende Zuversicht bei Unternehmen und Verbrauchern. Letztere beruht auf einem Rückgang der finanziellen und wirtschaftlichen Risiken sowie der Eingrenzung geopolitischer Risiken, die infolgedessen bisher kaum Auswirkungen auf Volkswirtschaften und Märkte hatten.

Weil eine höhere Nachfrage zu angespannteren Produkt- und Arbeitsmärkten führt, sollte man erwarten, dass die jüngste Wachstumszunahme in den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften mit einem Anstieg der Inflation einhergeht. Doch die Kerninflation ist in den USA in diesem Jahr gefallen, und in Europa und Japan bleibt sie hartnäckig niedrig. Dies stellt die wichtigen Notenbanken – angefangen bei der US Federal Reserve und der Europäischen Zentralbank –, die versuchen, ihre unkonventionelle Geldpolitik auslaufen zu lassen, vor ein Dilemma: Sie haben höheres Wachstum sichergestellt, aber erreichen ihr Ziel einer jährlichen Inflationsrate von 2% noch immer nicht.

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