三岔路上的中东

拉古娜海滩—在最近的中东之旅中,我震惊于国与国之间差距的增加——夸张到什么程度呢?离开时,我相信如今谈论作为整体的地区团结已经毫无意义。这个世界重要组成部分已不再追求内部趋同,而是走上了三岔路——重大分歧将会在未来多年内持续并有可能加剧。

第一条路是伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚等国家,它们苦苦挣扎于避免陷入沦为失败之国的陷阱。它们都面临着不幸的可能,即局面在改善之前还会继续恶化。

这类国家每天都因为暴力、政治分裂、社会崩溃和经济萧条的可怕结合而愈陷愈深。它们自救于水火的能力很弱,一些国家几乎可以说毫无自救能力。悲剧的是,大规模人道灾难可能会持续下去,由此导致的移民潮将给邻国带来沉重压力,特别是约旦和黎巴嫩。

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