El futuro incierto del predominio de los bancos centrales

NEWPORT BEACH – La historia está repleta de personas e instituciones que ascendieron a posiciones de predominio para después caer. En muchos casos, la arrogancia –un sentimiento de invencibilidad alimentada por un poder incontestado– fue su perdición. En otros, sin embargo, el ascenso y la caída tuvieron que ver más  con las expectativas injustificadas de personas de su entorno.

En años recientes, los bancos centrales de las economías más avanzadas han asumido una postura de toma de decisiones casi dominante. En 2008 se les convocó para corregir las disfunciones de los mercados financieros antes de que llevaran al mundo hacia la gran depresión II. En los cinco años que siguieron desde ese entonces, su participación fue aumentando para ofrecer una creciente lista de resultados financieros y económicos.

Entre más responsabilidades han ido adquiriendo los bancos centrales, mayores son las expectativas de lo que pueden lograr, sobre todo en lo que se refiere a la tan codiciada tercia de una mayor estabilidad financiera, un crecimiento económico más rápido y una progresiva creación de empleos. Y los gobiernos que algunas veces resintieron el poder de los bancos centrales ahora están felices de que les compensen sus propias fallas de gobernanza económica –tanto que algunos parlamentos parecen sentirse empoderados para repetir una y otra vez conductas irresponsables.

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