Die Gefahr parteipolitischer Polarisierung für Amerika

NEWPORT BEACH – 2013 musste der Ruf der Wirtschaftspolitik der Vereinigten Staaten einen schweren Schlag hinnehmen. Teilweise war dies gerechtfertigt und teilweise nicht. Damit zusammenhängend verbreitet sich nun eine verzerrte Sicht der Dinge, die 2014 unnötig Maßnahmen unterminieren könnte, die für die Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Erholung der USA von zentraler Bedeutung sind.

Die weltweite Finanzkrise von 2008 ließ die US-Wirtschaft in einem Gleichgewicht auf niedriger Ebene zurück, das durch schwache Arbeitsmarkterholung, dauerhaft hohe langfristige Arbeitslosigkeit und Jungendarbeitslosigkeit sowie wachsende Ungleichheiten bei Einkommen, Wohlstand und Chancen gekennzeichnet ist. Viele Amerikaner begannen das Jahr 2013 mit großen Hoffnungen darauf, dass die Kongressführer, wenigstens zum Teil, die die Erholung bremsende Polarisierung und politische Lähmung überwinden könnten.

Die Erwartungen einer weniger turbulenten politischen Zeit wurden Anfang 2013 durch ein parteiübergreifendes Abkommen verstärkt, das die so genannte Haushaltsklippe verhinderte (wenn auch nur in letzter Minute und mit viel Groll) und später im Januar zu einem Abkommen führte, die Schuldengrenze zu erhöhen (wenn auch nur zeitweise). Angesichts der Aussichten auf weniger politische Waghalsigkeiten und Unsicherheit prognostizierten die Konsensschätzungen schnelleres und integrativeres Wachstum.

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