Les marchés voient la vie en rose

LAGUNA BEACH – L’économie mondiale a connu une année pour le moins inhabituelle, marquée par une série de changements imprévus sur le plan économique, géopolitique, ainsi que sur les marchés – et il est peu probable que le dernier trimestre fasse figure d’exception. La manière dont s’opéreront en fin de compte ces changements est vouée à impacter considérablement l’efficacité des politiques des États – entre autres nombreux aspects. Ainsi, comment expliquer que les marchés financiers se comportent comme s’ils évoluaient dans un monde à part ?

Apparemment imperturbables face à la croissance décevante des pays développés comme des économies émergentes, et malgré la montée des tensions géopolitiques en Europe et de l’Est et au Moyen-Orient, les marchés de capitaux ont enregistré record sur record au cours de l’année. Cette impressionnante reprise semble avoir ignoré tout un ensemble de notions corrélatives historiques, parmi lesquelles la relation bien connue entre la performance des actions et celles des obligations gouvernementales. En réalité, les corrélations régissant jusqu’alors différentes catégories d’actifs financiers se sont comportées de manière atypique, et parfois instable.

Pendant ce temps, sur le front des politiques, la cohésion des pays développés en matière de politique monétaire cède peu à peu la place à un système multidimensionnel, dans lequel la Banque centrale européenne enfonce davantage la pédale d’accélération de la relance, tandis que la Réserve fédérale américaine s’attache à lever le pied. Ces démarches orientent l’économie mondiale du quatrième trimestre vers une direction profondément incertaine, à bien des égards.

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