Růžové brýle trhů

LAGUNA BEACH – Letošní rok z pohledu globální ekonomiky neobvykle charakterizuje sled neočekávaných hospodářských, geopolitických a tržních proměn – a poslední čtvrtletí nejspíš nebude jiné. Jak se tyto proměny nakonec vyvinou, bude mít zásadní vliv na účinnost vládních politik – a mnoho dalšího. Tak proč se finanční trhy chovají, jako by žily ve svém vlastním světě?

Zjevně neotřeseny neuspokojivým růstem ve vyspělých i rozvíjejících se ekonomikách ani sílícími geopolitickými pnutími ve východní Evropě a na Blízkém východě, akciové trhy jdou letos od rekordu k rekordu. Toto působivé zotavení přehlíží řadu historických vazeb, mimo jiné už dlouho prokázanou korelaci mezi výkonem akcií a státních dluhopisů. Ostatně korelace mezi mnoha různými třídami finančních aktiv se chovají atypicky a občas nestabilně.

Měnověpolitická soudržnost vyspělých zemí přitom ustupuje vícestopému systému; Evropská centrální banka šlape silněji na plynový pedál stimulace, kdežto americký Federální rezervní systém zvolňuje. Tyto faktory posílají globální ekonomiku do posledního čtvrtletí roku se zátěží hluboké nejistoty v několika oblastech.

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