粉饰太平的市场

发自加州拉古纳海滩——对全球经济来说这都是不寻常的一年,充斥着一系列意料之外的经济,地缘政治和市场动荡——而最后一个季度也是如此。而这些动荡的最终进展将对政府各项政策的效力——以及其他许多事件——产生重大影响。那为什么各金融市场却依然可以仿佛置身事外般地自行其事呢?

即便发达国家和新兴经济体的增长都不如人意,即便东欧和中东的地缘政治危机不断升温,股票市场却似乎不闻不问地屡创新高。这一令人瞩目的走势甚至无视了许多历史性关联,比如股票市场与政府债券两者表现之间的长期关联。事实上,多种不同金融资产类别之间的相关性也呈现出一种非典型,甚至有时不稳定的走势。

与此同时,在政策方面,发达国家的货币政策一致性也正在让位给一个多轨道体系,欧洲央行进一步加速刺激政策,而美联储则逐步退出。这些因素都正把全球经济带入一个被多领域深刻不确定性所困扰着的第四季度。

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