Modernisierung der Volkswirtschaften im Nahen Osten

AMMAN – Anstatt vom Nahen Osten oder der arabischen Welt zu sprechen, ziehe ich in zunehmendem Maße die Verwendung des Begriffs WANA vor, der für Westasien-Nordafrika steht. Doch egal, wie wir die Region nennen: Es besteht die Gefahr, dass die globale Wirtschaftskrise ein nahezu perfektes Alibi für die Regierungen und andere dort bietet, mit der „gewohnten Tagesordnung“ fortzufahren, auch wenn eigentlich ein lauter Weckruf notwendig wäre.

Die globale Wirtschaftskrise hat lediglich dazu beigetragen, die chronischen strukturellen Ungleichgewichte innerhalb der Region zu verschleiern. Eine zu große Abhängigkeit von Hilfsleistungen und Öleinnahmen ist für fast alle Volkswirtschaften der WANA-Region charakteristisch. Man kann sogar ohne Übertreibung sagen, dass sie eine Art Lebenserhaltungssystem darstellen. Das Problem, wie man diese Länder von ihrer Sucht abbringt, erscheint unüberwindbar.

Denn die „Holländische Krankheit“ und der Geist des Rentenstaats haben sich in WANA breitgemacht und sowohl die Ölförderländer befallen als auch die Länder, die kein Öl fördern. Das fängt bei den Überweisungen von ausländischen Arbeitnehmern an, setzt sich bei Finanzinvestitionen aus den Ölländern (vor allem in Immobilien) und bei Börsenblasen fort und geht bis hin zur Auslandshilfe. Eine Nebenwirkung davon ist das größer werdende Einkommensgefälle – sowohl innerhalb als auch zwischen den WANA-Ländern.

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