El futuro de la fuerza

MÚNICH – En la reciente reunión anual del Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, participé en un grupo de debate sobre la defensa para examinar el futuro de los ejércitos. La cuestión que abordamos es decisiva: ¿para qué clase de guerra deben prepararse los ejércitos en la actualidad?

Los gobiernos tienen una ejecutora muy deficiente a la hora de responder a esa pregunta. Después de la guerra del Vietnam, las Fuerzas Armadas de los Estados Unidos abandonaron lo que habían aprendido sobra la contrainsurgencia y lo descubrieron de nuevo de la forma más dura en el Iraq y el Afganistán.

Las intervenciones militares de los Estados Unidos en esos países ejemplifican otra amenaza de la guerra moderna. Como el saliente Secretario de Defensa de los EE.UU., Chuck Hagel, señaló en una entrevista reciente, en la guerra, “la situación se puede descontrolar e ir a la deriva” de formas que pueden hacer que un ejército caiga en una utilización “más acelerada” de la fuerza de lo previsto en un principio. Sobre ese telón de fondo, la idea de que la fuerza por sí sola puede transformar las sociedades divididas por conflictos en Oriente Medio y otros lugares es una falacia peligrosa.

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