Le futur de la force

MUNICH – Lors de la récente réunion annuelle du Forum économique mondial à Davos, j’ai participé à un panel de dirigeants en charge de la défense pour discuter de l'avenir de l'armée. Nous avons abordé une question critique : à quel genre de guerre devraient se préparer les militaires d’aujourd'hui ?

Les gouvernements ont un bilan très négatif à propos de cette question. Après la guerre du Vietnam, par exemple, les forces armées des États-Unis ont supprimé ce qu'elles avaient appris concernant la contre-insurrection, et ont été contraintes de le redécouvrir au prix fort en Irak et en Afghanistan.

Les interventions militaires américaines dans ces pays illustrent un autre défi clé de la guerre moderne. Comme l’a souligné le secrétaire américain à la Défense sortant Chuck Hagel dans une interview récente, à la guerre, « les choses peuvent s’emballer, aller à la dérive et s’égarer » de sorte qu’une armée peut se voir contrainte d’opter pour un usage plus « accéléré » de la force que ce qui était initialement prévu. Dans ce contexte, l'idée que la force à elle seule pourrait transformer les sociétés déchirées par les conflits au Moyen-Orient et ailleurs est une erreur dangereuse.

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