武装力量的未来

慕尼黑—在最近的达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上,我参与了一个由防务领导人组成的委员会,讨论军事的未来。我们面对的问题是一个关键问题:当今军队应该准备打怎样的战争?

政府在回答这一问题上的历史记录实在糟糕。比如,越南战争后,美国武装部队将它所学到的反叛乱知识打入冷宫,结果在伊拉克和阿富汗战争又吃了二遍苦头。

美国对这些国家的军事干预彰显出现代战争的又一关键挑战。即将卸任的美国国防部长哈格尔在最新访问中指出,在战争中,“情况会失控,其漂移和移动”可能令军队比最初预想的更快“加速”使用武力。在此背景下,光靠武力就能改变饱受冲突困扰的中东和其他地区社会的概念是一个危险的谬误。

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