Jean-Claude Juncker at European Parliament.

Politics

Справиться с идеальным штормом в Европе

Oct 2, 2015 Richard Haass

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Китайцы любят напоминать, что в их языке используется один и тот же иероглиф для слов «кризис» и «шанс». Действительно, в кризис часто открываются новые возможности, но очень трудно увидеть много новых возможностей в нынешних обстоятельствах в Европе.

Одна из причин, почему текущее положение в Европе оказалась столь затруднительным, в том, что оно стало совершенно неожиданным. Прошло 70 лет после Второй мировой войны, четверть века после окончания Холодной войны, примерно два десятка лет после Балканских войн, и вдруг мы оказались в ситуации, когда политическое, экономическое и стратегическое будущее Европы стало внезапно выглядеть намного менее определенным, чем прогнозировалось всеми ещё буквально год назад.

Другая причина беспокойства в том, что Европа столкнулась не с одним кризисом, а с несколькими. Первый кризис – экономический: речь идет не столько о сегодняшних реалиях низких темпов экономического роста, сколько о перспективе, что эти низкие темпы сохранятся неизменными, в первую очередь, из-за политики, которая зачастую не благоприятствует инвестициям и созданию рабочих мест бизнесом. Рост рейтингов популистских политических партий (как левых, так и правых) во многих странах континента свидетельствует о разочаровании и страхах населения.

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2000
162 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior counselor at Centerview Partners, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-03), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens (Penguin Press, 2023) and the weekly Substack newsletter Home & Away.

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George Koo Oct 19, 2015

Alas, the Chinese language is being mis-cited again. The Chinese for "crisis" is made up of two characters, wei and ji. "Wei" is usually associated as one of two characters to signify danger or risk. "ji" is one of two that together means opportunity. Thus weiji combined signifies dangerous opportunity. It is incorrect to say that the Chinese regard crisis and opportunity as one and the same.
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James Mboya Oct 15, 2015

Russia's offshoots are just a kind reminder to the western alliance that it is still a major military power to be reckoned with, something that the western alliance begun to forget when the USSR was dismantled. The West recently had a chance to displace Assad and, perhaps the slow, methodical reasoning and reaction of the Obama administration was prudential in preventing another unwarranted headache for the United States. But, that slow moving motion gave Putin, yet another knight his chess board. What should the West do? If it does nothing and let Putin hang himself with his rope, Putin, will in the meantime, allow the refugee crisis to destabilize the West. But, if the West now coalesce and find the courage to try and oust Assad, Russia will stand in the way. Therefore, the best scenario would be for the West to negotiate with Russia (as they did recently with Iran), and let Russia know that if they kick out Assad, then sanctions against it will be lifted. Russia can also be persuaded to leave its occupied territories in Europe. But, if nothing is done immediately, the refugees will continue to overwhelm the West and, in due time, there's going to be unrest in Russia, because that rope is just too long for the masses to resist eventually using on Putin.
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Wasu Mattanapotchanart Oct 6, 2015

The Chinese letter for "crisis" is a combination of two other letters, "danger" and "opportunity".
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Zsolt Hermann Oct 5, 2015

"The Chinese often point out that in their language the character for crisis and opportunity are one and the same."
That is completely true, moreover if we did not have to overcome problems to reach "happy ending" we would not be able to appreciate that happy state. Even Hollywood movies have a dramatic middle part when seemingly everything falls apart for the "heroes" to triumph at the end fully appreciating their overcoming.

But there is a very important condition: we need to recognize what has caused the crisis, what the root cause is for the "disease". Without the accurate diagnosis we can't heal anything but make things worse and the patient might pass away, blowing the chances for a "happy ending".

Today the problem is not the recognition the crisis, only a fool would say we do not have multiple, serious problems all over the world.
But we are still reluctant or incapable or recognizing the root cause.
When we speak about "union", "cooperation" it cannot be simply based on markets, financial systems economic gains.
Human beings need to unite, mutually complement each other out of evolutionary, natural necessity. We evolved from and still exist in, develop with nature around us. All the laws, principles of nature - maintaining balance and homeostasis - are binding for us too.

Europe and the whole global human community is "reaping" the rewards of the mistaken notion that life is based on wealth, chasing pleasures, building profit. We made ourselves believe that health, status can be measured by quantitative growth, GDP figures, stock market performance. We have taken tools, facilitating systems that were supposed to make life, human interaction easier and made them as the essence of life. We educate ourselves to ruthlessly compete with each other, to benefit at expense of others.

We can't solve any of our problems until we reassess what "life", "existence" is, how life and optimal development is sustained in a natural system. Europe's and the global world's crisis, stormy weather will only get worse until we realize it is how we relate to each other matters, and we stop ignoring the need for true, mutually complementing cooperation in between us.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 4, 2015

While European leaders are struggling to agree on how to tackle the multiple crises Richard N. Haass says "the US has a special obligation to help" in resolving the refugee crisis. He holds the Obama administration responsible for "what it has done and what it has failed to do in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere in the Middle East" that had "led to the refugee exodus."
In the past Haass criticised the Administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East for seeking regime change - Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, and now Bashar al-Assad. Then he accused Obama of remaining "aloof" from the war in Syria, declining to arm the “moderate” opposition and baulking at a direct use of military force in September 2013, even though the Assad regime defied his “red line” by using chemical weapons on civilians on several occasions.
Since the emergence of the Islamic State the author is in favour of keeping Assad in power, saying Obama's demand "Assad must go" does not serve to stabilise the region. Seeing the Assad a lesser evil he once said the US would have to swallow the biller pill of tolerating the Syrian dictator, while supporting "acceptable opposition groups that fight the Islamists.
In the face of the refugee crisis that Europe is grappling with Haass says politicians should not focus on the "consequences" of "caring for, employing, and integrating such numbers /which/ will soon run up against the limits of physical capacity, financial resources, and public tolerance". He urges instead to look into the causes of the crisis, which has the ongoing civil war in Syria to thank for. He believes the only "change that would have the greatest positive impact would be the emergence of a new government in Damascus that was acceptable to the bulk of the Syrian people and a satisfactory partner for the United States and Europe." Indeed, this would hardly be the case, as Iran and Russia have a different agenda than the West - to keep Assad in power!
It's true that the "US also has a strategic interest in helping Germany and Europe contend with this crisis", because the EU - as a bloc - is the world's largest economy and "remains one of America’s principal geopolitical partners." He suggests the US together with "Europe and Germany in particular" to take small steps to "resolve Europe's predicament". Rhetoric is one thing, to translate it into action is another!
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lt lee Oct 3, 2015

"The Chinese often point out that in their language the character for crisis and opportunity are one and the same. "
The esteemed author is making thing up about Chinese language. The two characters for crisis and the two characters for opportunity are not the same. Primary school Chinese.
Opportunity is "ji hui" in Chinese. The first character indicates "machanism". "Ji" sounds like noise produced by some crude unoiled machine with moving parts. And the second character means "meeting." Opporutnity in Chinese means a meeting generated by this or that mechanism.
Crisis is "wei ji" in Chinese. The first character means "danger" and the latter indicates "mechanism."
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Max Isert Oct 2, 2015

I have not agreed much with Mr. Haass over the last several months, especially when it comes to the Iran Deal, etc. I am glad a deal was achieved. But his is a realistic assessment of the situation in Europe, and his solutions are reasonable too.
Looking at this current Islamic Immigration Invasion of Europe as a great National Security risk for the United States and Western Civilization as a whole is correct, and the right way to go.
As I commented on another article here on Project Syndicate by Joscka Fischer, in my opinion, this current Islamic Immigration Invasion of Europe is a NATO Article 5 Collective Defence case.
If Europe falls, soon or later it will also substantially weaken and endanger the United States, and put at great risk the entire White Anglo Saxon Protestant Civilization and World Order.
If Europe falls, it will create a domino effect, that will take the entire White Anglo Saxon Protestant Civilization down with it.
Some might not agree with me, and think I am fear-mongering here and spreading panic, but I see the current situation as dire, and it must be treated with the greatest urgency and given the greatest attention possible.
The United States must assist, guide and defend Europe.
We cannot help refugees, who destabilize our own societies. We need to practice an enlightened egoism and realism, and we need to protect our own people and our culture first.
The United States now, must be a guiding light and protector to the Old Continent of its ancestors.
- Max Isert Oct 4, 2015
  
  I agree with you, Mr. Sinha, that NATO seems to be the only union these days delivering some sort of positive outcome for all its members, but Turkey under Mr. Erdogan is increasingly becoming a major liability for NATO, in my opinion, and a major security risk for the European Union.
  The ''Six Eyes'' including Germany, and NATO excluding Erdogan's Turkey would be my ideal scenario for a new and improved security structure for the West. Economically, the Euro without Greece would be the cherry on top for me personally.
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- jagjeet sinha Oct 4, 2015
  
  Well, the exclusion of Germany after 1814, after France fell, perhaps one of the reasons for the meltdown 100 years later.
  Since George I was "imported" from Germany in 1714, the House of Saxe Coburg could well be the House of Battenburg today.
  The reason why it is the House of Windsor is perhaps to do with the difficulties of incorporating Germany as the Sixth Eye.
  Scandinavians - including The Dutch and the Swiss - could well be the Sixth or the Seventh.
  But geography often prevents wrenching " Islands" out of Continental land masses.
  Germany has already shown maximum magnanimity in the current predicament.
  As for European Union as a whole, the student has to be willing ....
  Despite the author's nuanced understanding and propositions, NATO perhaps the only 'Union' that delivers.
  If Einstein had 60 minutes to solve, he would spend 55 minutes defining the problem, 5 minutes for the solution.
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- Max Isert Oct 4, 2015
  
  I do not see the core of the Anglosphere as being particularly inclusive, e.g. the ''Five Eyes.''
  I wish the ''Five Eyes'' were expanded to the ''Six Eyes'', by adding Germany.
  After all Anglo-Saxons, and in particular the British Royal Family, have German blood running through their veins.
  I think you are approaching this entire dynamic and problem with a ''Davos Man'' attitude, Mr. Sinha.
  The ''Davos Man'' approach is detrimental when it comes to national security matters. Globalization (open borders) and complexity lead to vulnerability and instability.
  The ''Six Eyes'' would be the backbone of a White Anglo and Saxon Protestant economic and security infrastructure, that could withstand every storm, even a perfect storm. Germany being part of the group as the link back to continental Europe is crucial in this regard, in my opinion.
  In the current environment, and for many decades or even centuries to come, security concerns will trump economic concerns. And a stable and prosperous economy can only be sustained within a secure and stable market place.
  Stability is achieved by exclusivity, and not by inclusivity. Or expressed differently, quality has to be given priority over quantity. As I stated before, there are limits to growth and altruism on a finite planet.
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- jagjeet sinha Oct 4, 2015
  
  When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.
  The European Union visualizes the Euro replacing the Pound and the Dollar eventually - hubris that is headed for nemesis.
  The Anglosphere success is rooted in Inclusiveness - that visualizes the old continent merely one of its multiple roots.
  Inclusiveness eliminates boundaries of Race Religion Region - whose persistence epitomizes the European Union.
  When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.
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M M Oct 2, 2015

This article confuses many issues. The EU’s problems have been debated at length and they are first and foremost structural. The EU was meant to be a Democratic Institution but was turned into an Autocratic one. It was meant to lead by consensus taking into account the unique circumstances of the member states by respecting their sovereignty, this did not happen either. All Treaties leading to the formation of the EU/EZ/EMU are no longer fit for purpose.
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