Wie das Untätigkeitsargument missbraucht wird

SAN JOSÉ, COSTA RICA: Es gibt ein häufig wiederholtes Argument dafür, etwas gegen den Klimawandel zu tun, das überzeugend klingt, aber sich als nahezu betrügerisch erweist. Es basiert auf dem Vergleich der Kosten von Handeln und Untätigkeit – und fast alle wichtigen Politiker weltweit verwenden es.

Der Präsident der EU-Kommission, José Manuel Barroso, etwa benutzte dieses Argument, als er in diesem Jahr den EU-Vorschlag zur Bekämpfung des Klimawandels vorstellte. Die EU versprach, ihre CO2-Emissionen bis 2020 um 20% zu drosseln. Die Kosten dafür sollen nach Schätzung der Kommission selbst etwa 0,5% vom BIP oder rund € 60 Milliarden pro Jahr betragen. Offensichtlich ein hoher Preis – eine mindestens 50%ige Zunahme der EU-Gesamtkosten –, der vermutlich noch höher ausfallen dürfte (in früheren Schätzungen ging die Kommission von doppelt so hohen Kosten aus).

Barrosos Pointe jedoch war, dass die „Kosten gering sind im Vergleich zum hohen Preis des Nichtstuns“. Tatsächlich prognostizierte er, der Preis der Untätigkeit könne „sich sogar 20% vom BIP annähern“. (Wobei nichts zur Sache tut, dass diese Kostenschätzung völlig überzogen sein dürfte. Die meisten Modelle weisen Schäden von etwa 3% aus.)

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