误用无所作为的论点

    哥斯达黎加圣何塞-人们经常采用一种论点来呼吁采取行动应付气候变化。这一论点听起来挺有道理,但是实际上几乎是骗人的。这一论点的基础是比较采取行动的代价和无所作为的代价,而全球几乎所有的政坛人物都使用这一论点。

    例如,欧洲委员会主席巴罗索在今年早些时候提出欧盟应对气候变化建议的时候就采用了这一论点。欧盟承诺到2020年的时候将其二氧化碳的排放削减20%。欧盟委员会自己估计其成本是每年大约600亿欧元,大约为其GDP的0.5%。明显这是一个巨大的代价,相当于欧盟总成本提高至少50%。而且,还有可能更高(欧盟委员会以前估计成本是目前估计的一倍)。

    但是巴罗索的关键论点是:“与无所作为相比,这一成本还是低的”。实际上,他预计无所作为的代价“甚至可能接近GDP的20%”。(他们从来就没有注意这一估计本身就大大偏高;大多数的模式估计损失为大约3%)。

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