La Chine parviendra-t-elle à se réformer ?

TOKYO – Les idées toutes faites au sujet du troisième plénum du comité central du 18° congrès du parti communiste chinois, un conclave qui se tient du 9 au 12 novembre, ont quelque chose d'étrange et troublant. L'attention de la communauté internationale se porte avant tout sur les changements politiques technocratique jugés essentiels pour restructurer l'économie majoritairement étatique de la Chine et booster la croissance. Le gouvernement va-t-il libéraliser les taux d'intérêt et desserrer le contrôle des capitaux ? Comment le système budgétaire va-t-il être redessiné ? Y aura-t-il aussi une réforme agraire ?

On peut prolonger à loisir la liste de ces questions. A l'extérieur de la Chine, le point de vue qui domine dans le monde des affaires est que le nouveau gouvernement du président Xi Jinping a consolidé son pouvoir et acquis assez d'autorité pour entreprendre des réformes économiques de grande ampleur. Mais il faut que lui et son équipe prennent les bonnes mesures.

En apparence cette manière de penser est satisfaisante. Dans le systéme politique chinois hyper-hierarchisé, on considère qu'une direction unifiée est parfaitement capable de soumettre la bureaucratie à ses désidérata. Avec la campagne anti-corruption de Xi qui bat son plein et l'emprisonnement de Bo Xilai qui sert d'avertissement aux adversaires du nouveau président (aussi hauts soient-ils dans la hiérarchie), on peut s'attendre à ce que les responsables chinois à tous les niveaux soient mis au pas.

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