Tenir compte des pays voisins

PRINCETON – L’idée communément admise la semaine dernière au sujet du respect par la Syrie du cessez-le-feu proposé par l’ancien secrétaire général des Nations unies Kofi Annan était qu’il dépendait de la Russie. Il s’agissait là d’un retour aux politiques de la Guerre froide, caractérisées par la réticence de l’Occident à recourir à la force et par la volonté de la Russie à continuer à armer et à soutenir son client. La Russie détenait donc la carte maîtresse, c’est-à-dire le choix des pressions qu’elle était prête à exercer sur le président Bachar al-Assad pour qu’il se conforme au plan de paix négocié par Annan.

Si ce point de vue est juste, il est certain que l’Iran doit également détenir des atouts considérables. Kofi Annan s’est d’ailleurs également rendu à Téhéran. La géopolitique traditionnelle de l’équilibre des pouvoirs est, semble-t-il, bien vivace.

Mais cette idée est, au mieux, un point de vue partiel qui dissimule la réalité autant qu’il la révèle. Elle ignore en particulier l’importance cruciale et croissante des politiques et institutions régionales.

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