注意邻居

普林斯顿—关于上周叙利亚会不会遵守前联合国秘书长安南的停火计划这一问题,传统智慧认为答案取决于俄罗斯。我们正在回归冷战政治,西方不愿使用武力,而俄罗斯愿意为其客户提供武装和支持。于是,王牌落到了俄罗斯手里:施加多少压力给叙利亚总理巴沙尔让他遵守安南的计划完全取决于俄罗斯的意愿。

如果这一看法正确,则伊朗手里也握有同样的王牌。毕竟,安南也去了德黑兰。传统实力平衡地缘政治似乎活力依旧。

但这说到底只算得上片面的观点,揭开了盖头的一半,却盖住了另一半。特别是,这一观点没有看到地区政治和制度日益增加的关键作用。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles from our archive every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/XndwltE/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.