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The Arab World’s Coming Challenges

Jun 13, 2017 Tarek Osman

When it comes to the Middle East, it is no surprise that political leaders, diplomats, and the donor and humanitarian community typically focus on the here and now. Yet we must not lose sight of the future – especially when regional trends are conspiring to bring further turmoil and conflict.

LONDON – Fifty years after the Six Days War, the Middle East remains a region in seemingly perpetual crisis. So it is no surprise that, when addressing the region, politicians, diplomats, and the donor and humanitarian community typically focus on the here and now. Yet, if we are ever to break the modern Middle East’s cycle of crises, we must not lose sight of the future. And, already, four trends are brewing a new set of problems for the coming decade.

The first trend affects the Levant. The post-Ottoman order that emerged a century ago – an order based on secular Arab nationalism – has already crumbled. The two states that gave weight to this system, Iraq and Syria, have lost their central authority, and will remain politically fragmented and socially polarized for at least a generation.

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Zoran Lazic Jun 20, 2017

Decent analysis with no solutions.

1. "One highly promising option would be to create a full-on Marshall Plan for the Arab world. But, in this era of austerity, many Western countries lack the resources, much less public support, for such an effort – most of the Arab world today couldn’t make the most of it in any case." >> So is it highly promising, or unlikely and useless anyway?

2. "What leaders – both within and outside the region – can do is pursue large-scale and intelligent investments in primary and secondary education". >> Many of the youths in Arab countries are highly educated and highly frustrated exactly because there are no jobs out there for educated young people. The solution is to add more fuel to the fire?
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Barry Rosenfeld Jun 18, 2017

The importation of immigrant labour has been the preferred method of Europe to deal with the crisis arising from low net domestic reproduction rates. Unfortunately, the longer term result will be the Islamification of Europe. This will not necessarily be bad, depending on the path taken by the evolution of Islam.

The failure of "native" Europeans to maintain birth rates to reproduce their populations might imply either an undue emphasis on enjoying high living standards today, or a loss of confidence in the future.

In any event, a "Fortress Europe" will not offset the reduction in labour inputs and the increasing dependency rates in Europe. Alternatively, the mass importation of people with skills oriented to the mid-20th century economy will not benefit Europe - other than increasing the number of workers in general service occupations that can't easily be automated.

The Marshall Plan worked because it injected needed capital to employ an educated and skilled workforce. This is not the case in Arab countries. The "Population Bomb" may have proven to have a delayed fuse, but ... .
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Yoshimichi Moriyama Jun 18, 2017

I am glad to know about the Middle East better with this article. Thank you.
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Charles Villette Jun 16, 2017

The Middle East has to become a bit more like Latin America, and Latin America a bit more like East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa a bit more like the Middle East.... I think the key is democracy. We can be much tougher on democracy. So the Russians -and the Chinese- will bankroll the corrupt elites and their cronies. So we will freeze their assets, and they can then build their own luxury hospitals in their countries! That will not impact emigration. It is anyway immoral to want to fight emigration at the core.
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j. von Hettlingen Jun 16, 2017

While Tarek Osman highlights all the challenges that the Middle East and North Africa are facing, he has omitted a failure of the powerholders in the region - to curb population growth. The crises of today, will remain the woes of tomorrow. The author mentions that "already, four trends are brewing a new set of problems for the coming decade."
The Levant - eastern Mediterranean area now covered by Israel, Lebanon, part of Syria, and western Jordan and Palestine - is remnants of the Ottoman Empire, whose borders were being drawn by the British and French diplomats - Mark Sykes and François Picot - in 1916. The region has long been the centre of conflicts and wars, due to its uniquely complex and diverse make-up of ethnic and religious groups. Limited resources, dense population, nepotistic autocracy, social grievanes had led to political turmoil, sparking sectarian violence in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings Wars are raging in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, "intensifying contests over national identities... and perhaps even the redrawing of borders – processes that will trigger further confrontations."
The second trend - according to the author - will affect Europe, due to its proximity to North Africa. Although the region’s most populous states - Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco - are being ruled with an iron fist and "enjoy broad popular consent, as well as support from influential institutions," their economy relies heavily on tourism, construction and agriculture. These three sectors have suffered due to terrorist attacks and dwindling demands, creating high unemployment. Youth bulge, poor education and skills are a toxic mix for political stability. As falling oil prices have taken a toll on the Gulf states, no longer willing to absorb millions of foreign workers, Europe is overwhelmed by the constant "sizeable migration flows."
The Gulf region is seeing the coming of a third trend. Many states are striving to wean themselves off their dependence on oil for their revenues. Aware of the need to attract investment if they are to provide jobs for their growing populations, "the Gulf economies are now undergoing an upgrade, ascending various industrial value chains. This reduces their "dependence on low-skill foreign workers" from the region and will "export less capital to it." The author believes the Sunni/Shia schism, pitting Iran against the Saudi-led Sunni coalition in fighting proxy wars in Syria and Yemen destabilise the region further. The recent crisis in Qatar is just another Saudi attempt to uphold its animosity towards Iran. Rulers across the Arabian Peninsula face also the demand "for reform from a technologically savvy and globally engaged young citizenry." Change doesn't come easy, given the "centuries-old social and political structures."
The author says the fourth trend may pose the biggest obstacle to stability in "the entire Arab world, as well as Iran and Turkey" because "the social role of religion" has become a poisioned chalice and "increasingly contested." Apart from the Sunni/Shia schism, there is also a divide within the Sunni Islam, pitting Wahhabism backed by the Saudis against political Islam embraced by the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar is now a victim of a Saudi-led retaliation due to its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and cooperation with Iran. As long as Saudi Arabia adheres to its hegemonic ambition and the imposition of an austere version of Islam, there is little outsiders can do to help bring peace to the region.
The author says, the West - despite rising populism and nativism - shouldn't focus on their socioeconomic woes and lose sight of geopolitics. He urges the West not to "succumb to illusions about redrawing borders or shaping new countries" in the Middle East as a resolution to the conflicts there, as "such efforts will yield only disaster." He proposes a "highly promising option" - "a full-on Marshall Plan for the Arab world." However, "in this era of austerity, many Western countries lack the resources, much less public support, for such an effort." Besides there seems little appetite in "most of the Arab world" for such a plan.
Nevertheless the author urges the international community to "pursue large-scale and intelligent investments in primary and secondary education, small and medium-size businesses (which form the backbone of Arab economies), and renewable energy sources (which could underpin the upgrading of regional value chains)." Even if this "agenda won't stem the dissolution of the modern Arab state in the Levant... generate workable social contracts in North Africa.... reconcile the sacred with the secular." At least it's could "address young people’s socioeconomic frustrations, /which/ can mitigate many of the longer-term consequences of these trends." Yet population growth is a problem, but a tabu in this part of the world, due to the social role that religion plays.
- Bruno Berewono Jun 18, 2017
  
  JVH, I think your commentary is more illuminating than the article itself
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Peter Lintner Jun 15, 2017

So Europe need to start investing massively in border protection, because i dont know too many europeans being exalted by the idea of mass migration from muslim countries. Fortress Europe is the preferred choice for majority of europeans.
- Henk Crop Jun 16, 2017
  
  Peter. I am afraid Europe has no other choice than a fortress. The greatest weakness are our own politicians, especially the Gutmenschen (good people), who are slow and unwilling to see what is happening in the world.
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Steve Hurst Jun 14, 2017

Additionally there can be expected an ongoing and deepening drought area where there is already discord. It is not fantasy to predict 10's of millions wanting to move North, some out of simple desperation
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Henry Rech Jun 14, 2017

Why is it that the West should finance a Marshall-like plan for the Middle East? What about Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states and Iran, the wealthiest states in the region? Saudi Arabia is now equal with Russia in annual military spending - why not divert this to developing the region? Obviously, Saudi Arabia has other plans. Ditto Iran. Why would any one outside of the region pump development funds into the region when the two of the richest nations won't do it and instead are intent on arming themselves to the teeth in preparation for an apocalyptic confrontation?
- Henk Crop Jun 16, 2017
  
  Henry. Well put.
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Thomas Lloyd Jun 13, 2017

Europe has to deal with European problems of fiscal integration and a move towards a United States of Europe with a central bank and monetary transfer. Europe has absorbed an extremely large number of young Middle Eastern and North African men, whose money are then transferred home away from Europe. The Gulf states will also have to face the reality of declining oil revenues and constant religious schisms. Islam along with its myriad problems belongs in the desert where it has remained virtually unchanged since its inception. It need not spread its terror and blind obedience to outdated dogma.

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Henk Crop Jun 13, 2017

Good article, but very alarming.

FYI. The Marshall Plan helped Europe to stand on its feet again after WW2.
However Europe was already industrialized before the war. Because of the war its facturies and infrastructure were totally destroyed.
Once these were replaced and repaired, also by the Marshal aid, the economies fairly quickly started moving again.
I do not know if such a program could be succesfully applied in the ME.
- Henk Crop Jun 16, 2017
  
  The author does not highlight the the role of the very high population growth in the ME, and other moslim countries.
  These are a root cause of the 1oo milion young job seekers. They also are a burden on the supply of water, for example in Egypt.
  The figures are hard to percieve. Between 2000 en 2050 growth will be in millions of people: Turkey 68 to 98, Egypt 68 to 127, Iran 66 to 105.
  Altogether an increase of 128 million. That is almost the current population of France + the UK.
  To address these challenges it would help if the countries would do more on the emancipation of women and on family planning.
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Paul Daley Jun 13, 2017

Good analysis, but, just as the problems are, the solutions will likely have to be political as well. The EU, in particular, will have difficulty surviving as an island of stability with problems to both its south and east. There is now a great deal of attention to measures to deepen integration in the Eurozone at the EU's center. But measures to widen the EU so as to cover political cleavages in both the east and south are also important.
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