Chedly Ben Ibrahim/Corbis/Getty Images

Los próximos retos del mundo árabe

LONDRES – Pasados cincuenta años de la Guerra de los Seis Días, que marcó el inicio de la ocupación de Israel de Jerusalén Este y Cisjordania, Oriente Próximo sigue siendo una región en crisis perpetua. No es de extrañar que, al evaluarla, los políticos, los diplomáticos y la comunidad de donantes y organismos humanitarios se centren en el aquí y ahora. Sin embargo, si queremos romper el ciclo moderno de crisis que afectan a esta zona del planeta, no debemos perder de vista el futuro. Y cuatro tendencias ya están preparando una nueva serie de problemas para la próxima década.

La primera tendencia afecta al Levante. Ya se ha desmoronado el orden post-otomano que surgiera hace un siglo, basado en el nacionalismo árabe secular. Los dos estados que le dieron peso, Irak y Siria, han perdido su autoridad central y seguirán políticamente fragmentados y socialmente polarizados por al menos una generación.

En el Líbano, el sectarismo sigue siendo el factor definitorio de la política. Jordania ha alcanzado su punto de saturación de refugiados, y el constante ingreso de personas está sometiendo los recursos limitados a una presión cada vez mayor. En cuanto al conflicto palestino-israelí, en el horizonte político no se advierte ninguna nueva iniciativa o circunstancia que pueda romper el estancamiento.

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