Chedly Ben Ibrahim/Corbis/Getty Images

阿拉伯世界即将到来的挑战

伦敦—— 标志着以色列占领东耶路撒冷和西岸的6日战争结束五年后,中东地区似乎仍然深陷永久性的危机。因此,在与该地区打交道时,政客、外交官、捐助者和人道团体往往都会关注当时当地,这一点都不稀奇。但如果我们想要打破现代中东的危机循环,就不能对未来有所忽视。不仅如此,四种趋势已经在为未来十年酝酿全新的问题。

第一种趋势影响黎凡特地区。一个世纪前诞生的以阿拉伯世俗民族主义为基础的后奥斯曼秩序已经土崩瓦解。支撑上述制度的伊拉克和叙利亚两国已经失去了中央政府,而且至少将在一代人的时间里无法摆脱政治分裂和社会分极。

在黎巴嫩,政治的核心特征仍然是宗派主义。约旦吸收难民的能力已经饱和,而持续的难民流入正在对有限的资源施加越来越大的压力。至于以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突,在未来可见的政治视野中根本没有新的倡议和状况可以打破现有的僵局。

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