Violence in Syria Karam Almasri/ZumaPress

Ein Ausweg aus dem Sumpf der Gewalt im Nahen

OXFORD – Die arabische Welt und ihre Nachbarn versinken im Sumpf aus Gewalt. Die Kämpfe in Libyen, Syrien, Jemen und Irak und die räuberischen Feldzüge von Gruppierungen wie der „Islamische Staat“ zerstören die wirtschaftlichen Verbindungen, die notwendig sind, um langfristig für politische Stabilität zu sorgen. Die jüngste Welle der Gewalt hat die wirtschaftlichen Grenzen der Region neu gezogen und so einen veritablen Handelsschock ausgelöst, dessen tatsächliche Dimension und Tragweite bislang kaum Beachtung gefunden haben.

Die Ausbreitung bewaffneter Gruppen lässt Grenzen durchlässiger für Konflikte und zugleich undurchlässiger für den Handel werden. Die Folgen sind vor allem in der Levante deutlich spürbar, wo bessere Transportverbindungen und Handelsreformen die wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen Irak, Jordanien, Libanon und Syrien gestärkt hatten.

Zwischen diesen Ländern war durchschnittlich ein lebhafterer Handel zu verzeichnen als zwischen ihren arabischen Nachbarn, der jedoch mit der zunehmenden Gewalt zum Erliegen gekommen ist. Vor allem die Schließung der Grenzen zu Syrien hat den regionalen Handel beeinträchtigt, da ein wichtiger Verbindungsweg zwischen der Levante, den Golfstaaten und der Türkei abgeschnitten wurde. Zu den unbemerkten Opfern zählen Apfelbauern im Libanon, die von Exporten leben. Seit 2011 hat Libanon fast alle seine Exportmärkte in Jordanien, im Irak und im Golf verloren.

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