Violence in Syria Karam Almasri/ZumaPress

摆脱中东的暴力陷阱

牛津—阿拉伯世界及其周边陷入了暴力陷阱。利比亚、叙利亚、也门和伊拉克的战事以及伊斯兰国等组织的烧杀抢掠正在摧毁确保长期政治稳定所必须的经济链条。事实上,最近的暴力潮改写了中东地区的经济边界,造成了名副其实的贸易冲击,其真正的规模和影响却尚未被大部分人所认识。

虽然武装集团的到处开花让国界因为冲突而漏洞重重,但贸易却变得更加困难了。黎凡特的状况尤其令人触目惊心。黎凡特良好的交通状况和贸易改革曾经强化了伊拉克、约旦、黎巴嫩和叙利亚之间的经济联系。

曾经,这些国家之间的平均贸易规模要大于其他阿拉伯国家之间,但如今因为暴力的升级,贸易已经崩溃。特别是叙利亚边境的关闭破坏了地区贸易——连接大黎凡特地区、波斯湾国家和土耳其的一条关键路径被关闭。不为人所注意的受害者包括依靠出口生存的黎巴嫩苹果种植者。2011年以来,黎巴嫩几乎失去了全部约旦、伊拉克和波斯湾出口市场。

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