Middle East wars Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Следующая война на Ближнем Востоке

БЕРЛИН – Благодаря освобождению Мосула в северном Ираке, Исламское государство (ИГИЛ) может вскоре уйти в историю. Но разгром ИГИЛ и крах его самопровозглашённого ирако-сирийского халифата не принесёт мир на Ближний Восток и даже не покончит с трагедией в Сирии. По всей видимости, откроется новая глава в кровавой и хаотичной истории региона, которая будет не менее опасной, чем предыдущие главы, написанные после падения Османской империи в конце Первой мировой войны.

Продолжение насилия выглядит почти гарантированным, поскольку регион по-прежнему неспособен решать внутренние конфликты самостоятельно или создать некое подобие стабильной мирной системы. Напротив, он не может вырваться из ловушки, застряв где-то между XIX и XX веками.

Западные державы вряд ли можно считать невиновными в бедах Ближнего Востока. Любое упоминание о соглашении Сайкса-Пико, благодаря которому Великобритания и Франция разделили территории бывшей Османской империи, до сих пор вызывает ярость в арабском мире, как будто этот план, секретно разработанный в 1916 году, был придуман только вчера.

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