Middle East wars Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

La prochaine guerre du Moyen-Orient

BERLIN – Avec la reprise de Mossoul au Nord de l'Irak, l'État islamique (EI) pourrait bientôt appartenir au passé. Mais la défaite de l'EI et la disparition de son califat auto-proclamé irako-syrien n'apportera pas la paix au Moyen-Orient, elle ne mettra pas non plus un terme à la tragédie syrienne. Elle risque plutôt d'ouvrir un nouveau chapitre dans l'histoire chaotique et sanglante de la région : un chapitre non moins dangereux que les précédents depuis la chute de l'Empire Ottoman à la fin de la Première Guerre mondiale.

La poursuite de cette tendance violente semble presque certaine car la région reste incapable de résoudre ses propres conflits internes, ou de créer quelque chose comme un cadre solide pour la paix. Au lieu de cela, elle reste coincée quelque part entre le XIXème et le XIXème siècle.

Les puissances occidentales sont loin d'être irréprochables sur la question des malheurs du Moyen-Orient. Toute mention de l'Accord Sykes-Picot, par laquelle la Grande-Bretagne et la France ont partitionné les territoires post-ottomans, suscite encore une vive colère dans le monde arabe puisqu'il semble que le plan, élaboré en secret en 1916, n'avait été conçu que la veille.

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