El realismo petrolero de Oriente Medio

TEL AVIV – Más allá de lo importantes que se estén volviendo las potencias petroleras fuera de Oriente Medio, la región seguirá siendo la principal fuente de energía del mundo en los próximos años. A diferencia de Rusia, los miembros de la OPEP de Oriente Medio actúan como un cartel que produce muy por debajo de su capacidad. En los niveles de producción actuales, Rusia quedará fuera de carrera para 2020. Las condiciones no son radicalmente diferentes en África.

Esto significa que la seguridad energética seguirá dependiendo fuertemente de la política de Oriente Medio, y que los productores de petróleo de la región no cesarán en su intento de imponer las condiciones al mercado mundial. De especial preocupación son los vínculos entre las ambiciones militares y la transferencia de riqueza que las exportaciones petroleras pueden generar. El programa de armas nucleares de Irán y el temible fortalecimiento militar de Irak de los años 1990 ejemplifican la asociación letal entre la hipermilitarización y el poder del mercado energético.

Las amenazas de motivación política a los suministros de petróleo, como siempre, dominan los debates de seguridad energética. Como demuestra el caso iraquí, las guerras y los levantamientos domésticos pueden no sólo afectar el nivel de los suministros de petróleo a corto plazo, sino también socavar la capacidad de producción a largo plazo de un país dificultando el mantenimiento y la inversión.

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