Нефтяной реализм Среднего Востока

ТЕЛЬ-АВИВ. Не имеет значения, насколько важными становятся развивающиеся нефтяные страны за пределами Среднего Востока, регион все равно останется основным мировым источником энергии на предстоящие годы. В отличие от России, ближневосточные члены ОПЕК действуют как картель, который производит намного меньше своих возможностей. При нынешних уровнях производства Россия будет не у дел к 2020 г. Условия в Африке не отличаются радикально.

Это означает, что энергетическая безопасность будет оставаться сильно зависимой от политики на Среднем Востоке, где региональные производители нефти будут продолжать пытаться диктовать условия мировому рынку. Особое внимание стоит уделить связям между милитаристскими амбициями и перемещением богатств, которое обеспечивает экспорт нефти. Иранская программа создания ядерного оружия и вызывающее опасение наращивание вооружения в Ираке в 90-х годах иллюстрируют неизбежную связь между чрезмерной милитаризацией и властью на энергетическом рынке.

Политические угрозы поставщикам нефти, как всегда, доминируют в дебатах по энергетической безопасности. Как показывает случай с Ираком, войны и внутренние перевороты могут влиять не только на краткосрочный уровень поставок нефти, но могут подорвать долгосрочную производственную мощность страны, препятствуя оказанию помощи и инвестициям.

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