Erdöl aus Nahost realistisch betrachtet

TEL AVIV – Ganz gleich, wie wichtig aufstrebende Ölmächte außerhalb des Nahen Ostens werden: Die Region wird über Jahre hinweg die wichtigste Energiequelle der Welt bleiben. Anders als Russland agieren die OPEC-Mitglieder in Nahost als Kartell, das weit unter Kapazität produziert. Bei den gegenwärtigen Förderquoten wird Russland bis zum Jahr 2020 aus dem Rennen sein. Die Bedingungen in Afrika sind nicht  wesentlich anders.

Das bedeutet, dass die Energiesicherheit weiterhin stark von der Politik im Nahen Osten abhängen wird und dass die Ölproduzenten der Region weiter versuchen werden, dem Weltmarkt die Bedingungen zu diktieren. Besondere Beachtung gebührt dabei den Verbindungen zwischen militärischen Ambitionen und dem Transfer von Reichtum, den Ölexporte mit sich bringen können. Das iranische Atomwaffenprogramm und Iraks beeindruckende militärische Aufrüstung der Neunzigerjahre veranschaulichen die tödliche Verbindung zwischen extremer Militarisierung und der Macht des Energiemarktes.

Debatten um die Energiesicherheit werden, wie immer, von politisch motivierten Drohungen in Bezug auf die Erdölversorgung dominiert. Wie der Fall Irak zeigt,  können Kriege und innerstaatliche Umbrüche nicht nur die kurzfristige Versorgung mit Erdöl, sondern auch die langfristige Produktionsleistung eines Landes beeinflussen, weil Instandhaltung und Investitionen behindert werden.

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