Le réalisme pétrolier du Moyen-Orient

TEL AVIV – Malgré l’émergence de quelques puissances pétrolières en dehors du Moyen-Orient, cette région continuera à représenter la principale source mondiale d’énergie dans les années à venir. Contrairement à la Russie, les États de la région membres de l’OPEP fonctionnent comme un cartel qui produit bien en deçà de ses capacités. Au taux de production actuel, la Russie aura quitté la scène d’ici 2020 et en Afrique, les conditions sont similaires.

Cela signifie que la sécurité énergétique reste fortement dépendante des orientations politiques du Moyen-Orient et que les pétroliers de la région continueront à imposer leur loi au marché mondial. Le lien entre les ambitions militaires et les transferts de richesses permis par les exportations de pétrole est particulièrement préoccupant. Le programme nucléaire iranien et l’imposant développement militaire de l’Irak dans les années 1990 sont des exemples du lien mortel entre l’hyper militarisation et le pouvoir exercé sur le marché de l’énergie.

Les menaces d’origine politique posées à l’approvisionnement en pétrole dominent comme d’habitude les débats sur la sécurité énergétique. Comme le démontre le cas de l’Irak, les guerres et les troubles intérieurs peuvent non seulement influer sur l’approvisionnement à court terme, mais également saper la capacité de production au long terme en empêchant d’effectuer la maintenance ou les investissements nécessaires.

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