中东石油的现实主义

特拉维夫——

无论地处中东之外的新兴石油大国正在变得何等的重要,中东地区仍将在未来多年之内继续作为世界能源的主要来源;而与俄罗斯不同的是,中东地区的欧佩克成员国按卡特尔模式,将石油产量远远控制在实际生产能力之下。按目前的生产速率,俄国到2020年时便将退出石油生产领域;在非洲,这种情况也好不了多少。

这意味着能源安全仍将高度依赖于中东的政局,而该地区的石油生产国也将继续寻求对世界市场的掌控。其中,军事野心与石油出口所导致的财富转移之间的联系尤为引人关注,伊朗的核武器计划与伊拉克在上世纪九十年代规模骇人的军力发展都体现出了超军事化与能源市场强权之间所具有的致命联系。

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