FEZ – In July, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the Islamic State (ISIS) had been driven out of Mosul, the country’s second-largest city, which it captured three years ago. Sooner or later, it will also lose Raqqa, the capital of its self-styled caliphate – and the last true city under its control. But these defeats do not mean the downfall of ISIS, much less Islamist terrorism, or that the Middle East’s most acute conflicts will be resolved anytime soon.
To be sure, the fading dream of an Islamic caliphate will weaken the ability of ISIS and kindred groups to recruit disaffected youth. Already, the flow of foreign would-be jihadists crossing from Turkey into Syria to join ISIS has plunged, from 2,000 per month to about 50.
But such groups still have powerful lures at their disposal. Most fundamentally, they are able to offer disillusioned young people a sense of purpose and belonging. The fact that this purpose entails murder, terror, and mayhem may make it all the more appealing among frustrated and resentful youth.
To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.
To continue reading, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.
FEZ – In July, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the Islamic State (ISIS) had been driven out of Mosul, the country’s second-largest city, which it captured three years ago. Sooner or later, it will also lose Raqqa, the capital of its self-styled caliphate – and the last true city under its control. But these defeats do not mean the downfall of ISIS, much less Islamist terrorism, or that the Middle East’s most acute conflicts will be resolved anytime soon.
To be sure, the fading dream of an Islamic caliphate will weaken the ability of ISIS and kindred groups to recruit disaffected youth. Already, the flow of foreign would-be jihadists crossing from Turkey into Syria to join ISIS has plunged, from 2,000 per month to about 50.
But such groups still have powerful lures at their disposal. Most fundamentally, they are able to offer disillusioned young people a sense of purpose and belonging. The fact that this purpose entails murder, terror, and mayhem may make it all the more appealing among frustrated and resentful youth.
To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.
To continue reading, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.