oil terminal iran Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Le prix du pétrole et l'avenir du Moyen-Orient

CAMBRIDGE – Entre 2014 et 2016, le revenu des pays exportateurs de pétrole du Moyen-Orient a chuté d'un peu plus du tiers (environ 15% de leur PIB) et leur balance des comptes courants a basculé d'un excédent à un déficit à deux chiffres. Malgré une légère remontée des cours qui a eu lieu récemment, le prix du pétrole devrait rester à son niveau actuel à long terme, ce sera un choc macroéconomique de proportion historique qui va transformer le Moyen-Orient.

La plupart des pays producteurs de pétrole ont déjà commencé à resserrer les cordons de la bourse et à utiliser leurs réserves. Mais ceux d'entre eux qui sont surendettés, très déficitaires ou dont les réserves sont faibles vont être confrontés à des difficultés financières croissantes, si ce n'est déjà le cas. Avant même les pays riches du Conseil de coopération du Golfe, les premiers pays à être affectés par le niveau du cours du pétrole seront l'Algérie, Bahreïn, l'Irak, l'Iran, ainsi que la Libye et le Yémen qui sont déchirés par la guerre. Mais finalement leur sort dépendra des choix qu'ils feront aujourd'hui.

Plutôt que de réduire leur consommation, ils préfèrent évidemment améliorer leur productivité. C'est pour cela qu'ils essayent maintenant de diversifier leur économie.

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