The Russian state’s ideological madness and reversion to warlordism have been abetted by a religious fundamentalism that openly celebrates death in the name of achieving a god-like status. As Vladimir Putin’s propagandists are telling Russians, “Life is overrated.”
traces the religious and intellectual roots of the Kremlin’s increasingly morbid war propaganda.
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine. While there are some positive signs of economic recovery, a sudden escalation could severely destabilize the global economy, cause a stock market crash, and accelerate deglobalization.
warns that the Ukraine war and economic fragmentation are still jeopardizing world growth prospects.
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坎布里奇—2014至2016年间,中东石油出口国收入平均下降了三分之一强——或GDP的15%——它们的经常项目盈余也急转直下为两位数的赤字。尽管最近略有反弹,但大部分预测仍认为石油价格将在当前水平保持很长时间。果真如此的话,这将带来历史级别的宏观经济冲击,深刻地改变中东。
大部分石油生产国已经开始缩减开支、借钱和消耗储备。但存在巨大外部失衡、低储备或高债务的国家将日益感受到财政的捉襟见肘,有的甚至已经有这样的感觉了。低油价将冲击阿尔及利亚、巴林、伊拉克、伊朗、阿曼以及饱受战争摧残的利比亚和也门,然后是比较富裕的海湾合作组织成员国。但最终,各个国家的经济命运取决于其今天所做出的选择。
石油生产国要么减少消费,要么通过改善生产率维持消费。自然,任何国家都偏好于后者,因此中东各国政府正在试图通过经济多样化来解决问题。
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