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中东的石油价格问题

Jun 7, 2017 Ishac Diwan

坎布里奇—2014至2016年间，中东石油出口国收入平均下降了三分之一强——或GDP的15%——它们的经常项目盈余也急转直下为两位数的赤字。尽管最近略有反弹，但大部分预测仍认为石油价格将在当前水平保持很长时间。果真如此的话，这将带来历史级别的宏观经济冲击，深刻地改变中东。

大部分石油生产国已经开始缩减开支、借钱和消耗储备。但存在巨大外部失衡、低储备或高债务的国家将日益感受到财政的捉襟见肘，有的甚至已经有这样的感觉了。低油价将冲击阿尔及利亚、巴林、伊拉克、伊朗、阿曼以及饱受战争摧残的利比亚和也门，然后是比较富裕的海湾合作组织成员国。但最终，各个国家的经济命运取决于其今天所做出的选择。

石油生产国要么减少消费，要么通过改善生产率维持消费。自然，任何国家都偏好于后者，因此中东各国政府正在试图通过经济多样化来解决问题。

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lkmargerum @gmail.com Jan 25, 2018

هذه الصور لم تكن وصفية جدا لما كان يحدث، وهذا ليس ما يبدو في الواقع لأنني أعيش هناك.

hadhih alsuwar lm takun wasafiatan jiddaan lamaa kan yahduth, wahadhana lays ma yabdu fi alwaqie li'anani 'aeish hunak.
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j. von Hettlingen Jun 9, 2017

Ishac Diwan highlights the consequences of falling oil prices in the Middle East. Between 2014-2016 they fell "by an average of one-third - or 15% of GDP" - resulting to double-digit current-account deficits. A "recent uptick" will not change the trend, and oil prices remain "at current levels for the long term." The "macroeconomic shock" will have an impact on the economic outlook and geopolitics of the region. History has also shown how record highs and lows in oil have affected international relations and political developments over the last four decades.
The author says many oil exporters are being forced to cut spending in the face of sharply falling revenues. Even Saudi Arabia, despite its vast oil and financial reserves, has come under pressure, owing to a population hike and higher military expenditure linked to conflicts in the region. Low oil prices are not only shrinking the domestic budget, they impose austerity on a kingdom not used to hardships - cutting construction projects, energy subsidies and public sector wages, introducing new taxes and privatisations, and issuing debt etc.
However the government seeks to avoid cuts, that will affect ordinary Saudis, in order to maintain political stability. The public sector and support for friends and allies around the world, including media outlets, thinktanks, academic institutions, religious schools and charities are likely to bear the brunt. Given the vast amounts the Saudis spend on promoting Wahhabism - the austere version of Islam - in religious schools in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and charities in other Muslim countries, perhaps lower oil revenues might lead to cuts in support of Islamist extremists. Countries that have traditionally benefited from Saudi largesse include Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Palestine and Egypt. Other big and small oil producers - Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Oman, Libya, Yemen and the richer countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are also affected by slump in oil prices.
The author says major oil exporters are better positioned for new challenges, thanks to "major education and infrastructure investments that were made during the last decade of high oil prices." There had been talks about diversifying the economy and forging structural reforms to deliver growth. Leaders across the region resort to the stick and carrot policy - offering a combination of social largesse and repression to induce subservience, keeping public discontent and political opposition at bay.
"Unfortunately, this system of patronage and clientelism has become only more entrenched since the Arab Spring, as governments have increasingly had to buy political consent." But corruption, poverty, youth bulge and high unemployment are a toxic mix, that can't be dealt with in the absence of political and economic reforms. "Oil exporters, with the exception of Libya and Yemen, may have avoided major political changes, but the autocratic bargain – and any attempt to unravel it – has become more expensive."
While the old order is unravelling, "some regimes will be tempted to stick with the status quo, hope for a recovery in oil prices, and crack down harder on civil society in the meantime." The author says, "if that happens, the situation could turn out even worse than in the 1990s. The region’s people have grown even more accustomed to high levels of state spending, and the public discontent revealed by the Arab Spring has not disappeared." This is the vicious cirle that rentier states find themselves in.
The biggest obstacle to peace and stability is the Shia/Sunni schism, which has become a political tool used by Iran and Saudi Arabia in their power struggle in the region. Indeed, leaders need to muster enough "political courage" to reconcile and have "well-crafted policies" to improve human resources. Boosting "labor-market participation" will help citizens prosper and the country achieve sustainable growth for decades to come. "It is hard to predict what a future of low oil revenues will mean for the Middle East." The author's advice for the region’s elites: they "can either embrace change, or do nothing and risk a precipitous decline. The time to choose is running out."
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Wal Stir Jun 8, 2017

"In most Middle Eastern countries, labor-market participation is now among the lowest in the world"

This is another way of saying that, in the petro states of the Middle East, most of the population is largely irrelevant when it comes to national GDP. Even non-petro states in the Middle East have economies that depend significantly on oil revenues recycled from neighboring petro states. The oil era has been combined with massive population growth.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/demography-in-the-middle-east-population-growth-slowing-womens-situation-un

"From 1950 to 2000, the Middle East experienced explosive population growth. The region's population grew from 92 million to 349 million, a 3.8 fold increase, or 2.7 percent a year. All of the countries in the region had much the same experience"
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中东的石油价格问题

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