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中东的石油价格问题

坎布里奇—2014至2016年间,中东石油出口国收入平均下降了三分之一强——或GDP的15%——它们的经常项目盈余也急转直下为两位数的赤字。尽管最近略有反弹,但大部分预测仍认为石油价格将在当前水平保持很长时间。果真如此的话,这将带来历史级别的宏观经济冲击,深刻地改变中东。

大部分石油生产国已经开始缩减开支、借钱和消耗储备。但存在巨大外部失衡、低储备或高债务的国家将日益感受到财政的捉襟见肘,有的甚至已经有这样的感觉了。低油价将冲击阿尔及利亚、巴林、伊拉克、伊朗、阿曼以及饱受战争摧残的利比亚和也门,然后是比较富裕的海湾合作组织成员国。但最终,各个国家的经济命运取决于其今天所做出的选择。

石油生产国要么减少消费,要么通过改善生产率维持消费。自然,任何国家都偏好于后者,因此中东各国政府正在试图通过经济多样化来解决问题。

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