من سيكسب الحرب الباردة في الشرق الأوسط؟

لندن - تجري حرب باردة في منطقة ساخنة جدا. ويٌعد العنصر الجيوسياسي من العناصر الرئيسية للمنافسة الطائفية بين المسلمين الشيعة والسنة في الشرق الأوسط ، حيث تخوض إيران صراعا مع المملكة العربية السعودية وحلفائها الخليجيين من أجل الهيمنة الإقليمية.

ومثل الحرب الباردة الأصلية بين الاٍتحاد السوفيتي والولايات المتحدة، لا ينطوي هذا الصراع على المواجهة العسكرية المباشرة بين المنافسين الرئيسيين، على الأقل ليس الآن. بل يتم خوض هذه الحرب دبلوماسيا، وفكريا، واقتصاديا - وخاصة في أسواق النفط – ومن خلال الحروب بالوكالة، مثل الصراعات في سوريا واليمن. وليس هناك قضية في الشرق الأوسط الكبير لا تتصل بالتنافس على السلطة بين المملكة العربية السعودية وإيران.

في الوقت الحالي، يبدو أن الإيرانيين يحققون نجاحا. وفي أعقاب قرار المرشد الأعلى آية الله علي الخميني الذي وافق على اتفاق دولي يحد من قدرة إيران النووية من أجل أغراض سلمية، لم يتم  اٍزالة العقوبات الغربية حتى الآن. ومؤخرا تمت الموافقة مرة أخرى على التبادل التجاري مع إيران، حيث بدأ اقتصادها المعتل يعرف انتعاشا. وفي الوقت نفسه، فقد ضمت إيران أجزاء من العراق - بشكل مدهش، مع القبول الأمريكي - لأن لا أحد باستثناء ما يسمى "بالدولة الإسلامية" لديه القدرة على التصدي لذلك.

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