John Overmyer

Что беспокоит Францию?

ПАРИЖ – Франция серьезно больна. Настолько больна, что агентство Standard & Poor недавно снизило ее суверенный кредитный рейтинг, что является вторым понижением менее чем за два года. Данное решение сопровождалось предупреждениями о том, что бюджетные и структурные реформы, которые осуществила администрация президента Франсуа Олланда в последние годы, не способны улучшить перспективы среднесрочного роста Франции. Сейчас оказывается давление, чтобы провести структурные реформы повсюду, начиная с рынка труда и заканчивая налогообложением.

В то время как снижение в рейтинге Standard & Poor было неожиданным, оно не было шокирующим. Недавний спад в объемах промышленного производства Франции создает большой дефицит торгового баланса, а также подрывает конкурентоспособность малых и средних предприятий. Безработица остается на уровне 11%. В октябре количество зарегистрированных безработных составило рекордные 3,3 миллиона человек.

Одновременно с этим, политический кризис мешает стремлению правительства провести тяжелые реформы. Французские лидеры продемонстрировали неспособность эффективно взаимодействовать или применять прошлый опыт, анализируя текущие угрозы. Вместо этого они прибегают к отвлекающим маневрам, участвуя в раздутых риторических боях по мелким разногласиям. Но они не смогут игнорировать проблему вечно, а последствия откладывания реформ, в которых Франция нуждается, могут быть катастрофическими.

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