Michael Spence Rebooting China  consumption and economic growth WorldFish/Flickr

La renovación de China

MILÁN – Pese a la desaceleración económica de China, debatida de forma tan generalizada, el crecimiento anual del PIB sigue superando el siete por ciento, lo que no constituye un gran motivo de alarma... al menos de momento. La cuestión es si las medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno para aplicar las reformas estructurales y transformar el modelo de crecimiento de la economía están funcionando, es decir, si los desequilibrios internos siguen amenazando los resultados económicos a largo plazo. En vista de que China sigue siendo el más importante motor de crecimiento de la economía mundial, la respuesta tiene importancia para todo el mundo.

Para evaluar la estabilidad económica de China, hay que tener en cuenta los conflictos y las tensiones que afectan al país, ninguno de los cuales contribuye a impulsar el crecimiento. Para empezar, las disputas territoriales de China con muchos de sus vecinos, incluidos el Japón, Vietnam y las Filipinas, están socavando la paz regional, por no hablar de la integración económica.

Además, la relación de China con los Estados Unidos está deteriorándose por el conflicto que representa la orientación del “eje” de la política exterior de los EE.UU. hacia Asia y las disputas sobre la ciberseguridad. China ha restringido ya el acceso a su mercado a algunas empresas tecnológicas radicadas en los EE.UU., a lo que pueden seguir más medidas de ese tipo.

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