Michael Spence Rebooting China  consumption and economic growth WorldFish/Flickr

La Ripresa Della Cina

MILAN – Nonostante il rallentamento economico della Cina, ampiamente dibattuto, la crescita annua del PIL rimane superiore al 7%, il che implica un modesto motivo di allarme - almeno per ora. La questione è se stanno funzionando gli sforzi del governo di attuare riforme strutturali e trasformare il modello di crescita dell’economia - cioè, se gli squilibri interni continuano a minacciare la performance economica a lungo termine. La Cina rimane il più importante motore di crescita dell’economia globale, quindi la risposta è importante per tutti.

Per una valutazione della stabilità economica cinese è necessario considerare i conflitti e le tensioni che affliggono il paese - nessuno dei quali supporta la causa della crescita. Per cominciare, le dispute territoriali della Cina con molti dei suoi vicini, tra cui Giappone, Vietnam e Filippine, stanno minando la pace regionale, per non parlare dell’integrazione economica.

Inoltre, la relazione della Cina con gli Stati Uniti si va deteriorando, a causa del conflitto riguardo al ruolo da “pivot” giocato in politica estera dall’America contro l’Asia e le controversie sulla sicurezza informatica. La Cina ha già limitato l’accesso al proprio mercato ad alcune aziende tecnologiche statunitensi, ed è probabile che seguano altre azioni di questo tipo.

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