Michael Spence Rebooting China  consumption and economic growth WorldFish/Flickr

Chinas Neubeginn

MAILAND – Trotz der viel diskutierten Abschwächung der chinesischen Wirtschaft liegt das jährliche BIP-Wachstum weiter über 7% und bietet wenig Grund zur Besorgnis – zumindest vorläufig. Die Frage ist, ob die Anstrengungen der Behörden fruchten, Strukturreformen umzusetzen und das Wachstumsmodell der Wirtschaft zu transformieren – also, ob die langfristige Wirtschaftsleistung weiterhin durch binnenwirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte gefährdet ist. In Anbetracht der Tatsache, dass China nach wie vor der wichtigste Wachstumsmotor der Weltwirtschaft ist, ist die Antwort für alle von Bedeutung.

Um Chinas wirtschaftliche Stabilität beurteilen zu können, müssen die Konflikte und Spannungen berücksichtigt werden, denen das Land ausgesetzt ist – und die dem Wachstum allesamt nicht förderlich sind. Zunächst einmal untergraben Chinas  territoriale Streitigkeiten mit vielen seiner Nachbarn, unter anderem Japan, Vietnam und den Philippinen, den regionalen Frieden, von der wirtschaftlichen Integration ganz zu schweigen.

Zudem verschlechtert sich Chinas Beziehung zu den Vereinigten Staaten infolge von Konflikten über Amerikas außenpolitischen „Schwenk nach Asien“ und über die Internetsicherheit. China hat den Marktzugang für einige in den USA ansässige Technologiefirmen bereits beschränkt und weitere solcher Maßnahmen könnten folgen.

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