Michael Spence Rebooting China  consumption and economic growth WorldFish/Flickr

La reconfiguration chinoise

MILAN – Malgré un ralentissement économique chinois largement évoqué dans l’actualité, la croissance annuelle du PIB national demeure supérieure à 7%, bien loin de constituer un signal d’alarme – du moins pour le moment. La question se pose néanmoins de savoir si les efforts du gouvernement autour de la mise en œuvre de réformes structurelles et de la transformation du modèle de croissance de l’économie portent bel et bien leurs fruits – c’est-à-dire si les déséquilibres internes continuent ou non de menacer la performance économique à long terme. La Chine demeurant le premier moteur de croissance économique à l’échelle mondiale, la réponse à cette question nous importe à tous.

L’examen de la stabilité économique chinoise exige que l’on prenne en compte les conflits et tensions qui affectent le pays – comme autant d’entraves aux progrès de la croissance. Pour commencer, les contentieux territoriaux opposant la Chine à nombre de ses voisins, parmi lesquels le Japon, le Viêtnam et les Philippines, menacent la paix dans la région, de même que l’intégration économique.

Par ailleurs, les relations entre la Chine et les États-Unis se détériorent, en raison de tensions autour de cette stratégie de « pivot » vers l’Asie qui caractérise la politique étrangère américaine, ainsi que de différends en matière de cyber-sécurité. La Chine a d’ores et déjà restreint l’accès à son marché pour plusieurs entreprises technologiques américaines, d’autres mesures de ce type étant à prévoir.

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