¿Qué impide una recuperación sólida?

MILÁN – El mapa del crecimiento de la economía mundial queda relativamente claro. EE. UU. experimenta una recuperación parcial, con un crecimiento del 1,5-2 % y sin avances en el empleo. Europa en su conjunto apenas supera el crecimiento cero y muestra grandes variaciones entre países, aunque existe cierta evidencia de una reconvergencia, al menos en términos de los costos laborales unitarios nominales. El crecimiento chino, mientras tanto, se estabiliza en el 7 % y otros países en desarrollo se preparan para tasas de interés mayores.

Muchas economías avanzadas aún deben ocuparse del final del patrón de crecimiento previo a la crisis generado por un exceso de demanda interna. En esas economías, el patrón no solo depende típicamente del apalancamiento; también amplió el sector no transable de la economía y redujo el transable. Sin embargo, dado que el sector no transable se ve limitado por su dependencia de la demanda interna, la recuperación –si es que llega– dependerá del potencial de crecimiento del sector transable.

Para aprovechar ese potencial, el sector transable debe ampliarse nuevamente en el margen: así como una moneda que se debilita causa que caigan las importaciones y disminuyan los costos laborales reales unitarios a medida que los salarios nominales se reducen, la mano de obra y el capital desempleados salen en busca de mercados externos de bienes, servicios y recursos.

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