什么在阻止复苏?

米兰—全球经济的增长地图已经相对清晰。美国正在局部复苏之中,增长率为1.5—2%左右,但就业萎靡不振。欧洲作为一个整体只是略有增着那个,国家间差别很大,尽管有证据表明痛苦的再趋同正在发生,至少从名义单位劳动力成本看是如此。与此同时,中国的增长正在向7%靠近,其他发展中国家在准备提高利率。

许多发达经济体仍必须克服来自内需过剩的危机前增长模式的结束造成的后果。在这些经济体中,这一模式不仅往往依赖于杠杆;也常常扩大了经济中的不可贸易部门,压缩了可贸易部门。此外,由于不可贸易部门受其对内需的依赖,复苏——即使到来——将取决于可贸易部门的增长潜力。

为了实现潜力,可贸易部门必须在边际上重新扩张:随着货币贬值造成进口下降和实际单位劳动力成本因名义工资稳定而下降,失业的劳动力和资本将流向外部市场追求商品、服务和资源。

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