La recuperación de España

MILÁN – La economía española está comenzando a atraer la atención de los inversores –y no sólo porque los precios de los activos están deprimidos en el clima actual (lo que, se podría decir, implica un buen negocio para los inversores a más largo plazo). Si bien existen enormes problemas que todavía deben superarse, también hay una sensación clara y palpable de que la economía ha cruzado un punto de inflexión alrededor del inicio de este año.

Para los escépticos, los brotes de la recuperación no florecerán si no se tiene acceso al grifo del crédito, que todavía está taponado por el perjuicio en los balances de muchos bancos. Sin embargo, aunque el camino de regreso al pleno empleo y a un crecimiento sostenible no se construirá de la noche a la mañana, el progreso puede ser más rápido de lo que suponen la mayoría de los observadores.

Es fácil perderse en los detalles de los patrones de recuperación, de modo que ayuda un marco sólido para evaluar el crecimiento potencial. De hecho, la economía española es un caso clásico de un patrón de crecimiento defectuoso seguido de una recuperación predecible, ayudada por la implementación de políticas, que es impulsada principalmente (con cierta demora) por el sector comercial.

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