Traguardo Raggiunto in Spagna

MILANO – L’economia spagnola comincia ad attirare l’attenzione degli investitori - e non solo perché nel clima attuale i prezzi dei titoli sono molto bassi (il che probabilmente implica buoni affari per gli interessatial valore delle azioni di lungo periodo). Sebbene vi siano ancora enormi problemi da superare, si ha la netta sensazione che, più o meno dall’inizio di quest’anno, l’economia abbia svoltato.

Per gli scettici, i teneri germogli della ripresa non fioriranno senza l’accesso al rubinetto del credito, che è ancora ostruito dal danno patrimoniale di molte banche. Ma, anche se la strada di rientro verso la piena occupazione e la crescita sostenibile non sarà costruita in una notte, i progressi nella sua direzione possono essere più veloci di quanto la maggior parte degli osservatori si aspettano .

È facile perdersi nei dettagli dei modelli di recupero, quindi è utile avere un quadro solido per la valutazione del potenziale di crescita. Infatti, l’economia spagnola è un caso classico di una traiettoria di crescita difettosa seguita da un prevedibile recupero, politicamente assistito, guidato (con qualche ritardo) prevalentemente dal settore commerciale.

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