Gewinne in Spanien

MAILAND – In letzter Zeit wird die spanische Wirtschaft für Investoren attraktiv – und nicht nur, weil die Vermögenspreise momentan niedrig sind (was für langfristige, wertorientierte Investoren eine gute Kaufgelegenheit sein könnte). Es gibt zwar riesige Probleme, die noch gelöst werden müssen, aber offensichtlich ist auch, dass die Wirtschaft etwa zu Beginn dieses Jahres einen Wendepunkt erlebt hat.

Man muss zwar den Skeptikern lassen, dass die zarten Triebe der Erholung ohne den Zugriff auf Kreditquellen, die wegen der Bilanzprobleme vieler Banken immer noch verstopft sind, nicht zur Blüte gelangen werden. Aber wenn der Weg zurück zu Vollbeschäftigung und nachhaltigem Wachstum auch nicht über Nacht gebaut werden kann, könnten Fortschritte doch schneller stattfinden als von den meisten Beobachtern angenommen.

Es ist leicht, sich in den Details von Erholungsmustern zu verlieren, also ist ein solider Rahmen für die Bewertung potenziellen Wachstums hilfreich. Tatsächlich ist die spanische Wirtschaft ein klassisches Beispiel für ein defektes Wachstumsmuster, auf das eine vorhersehbare, maßnahmenunterstützte Erholung folgt, die (mit Verzögerung) vom Handelssektor angetrieben wird.

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