La situation s’améliore en Espagne

MILAN – L'économie espagnole commence à attirer l'attention des investisseurs – et pas seulement parce que les prix des actifs sont déprimés par le climat actuel (ce qui en fait sans doute une bonne affaire pour les investisseurs recherchant une plus-value à long terme). Bien qu'il subsiste d'énormes problèmes à surmonter, il y a aujourd’hui un net sentiment sur le terrain que l'économie a passé un tournant, à peu près au début de cette année.

Les sceptiques estiment que les germes de reprise ne pourront pas s’épanouir tant que le robinet du crédit demeure bouché par les dommages aux bilans de nombreuses banques. Mais, même si le chemin du retour au plein emploi et à une croissance durable ne se fera pas du jour au lendemain, la vitesse des progrès dans cette direction pourrait surprendre la plupart des observateurs.

Il est facile de se perdre dans les détails des scénarios de reprise économique, de sorte qu’un cadre solide pour évaluer le potentiel de croissance est utile. En fait, l'économie espagnole est un cas classique de modèle de croissance défectueux suivi d’une reprise prévisible, soutenue par des réformes politiques et déclenchée (après un certain délai) principalement par le secteur des biens échangeables.

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