Comment parvenir à une croissance durable et inclusive

MILAN – L'évolution de la situation dans les pays avancés depuis la crise financière de 2008 a suscité un débat sur la croissance, l'emploi et les inégalités de revenus - un débat qui évolue rapidement. Cela n'est pas étonnant, car pour ceux qui s'attendaient à une reprise relativement rapide après la crise, moins les choses changent plus les choses changent.

Peu après le quasi effondrement du système financier, face à l'étendue des déséquilibres budgétaires et aux conséquences évidentes du désendettement sur la demande intérieure, on a arrêté de croire à un redémarrage cyclique normal. Le désendettement est nettement amorcé, mais l'effet positif sur la croissance et l'emploi reste décevant. Aux USA, la croissance du PIB reste très inférieure à sa valeur potentielle estimée, et en Europe la croissance est négligeable.

Le chômage est encore relativement élevé et la croissance du PIB ne se traduit que par une faible création d'emplois. Il faut remonter jusqu'à la troisième récession dans le passé pour voir apparaître cette tendance qui est devenue de plus en plus marquée à chaque reprise. Dans la plupart des pays avancés, le secteur exportateur n'a pas créé beaucoup d'emplois - un problème qui était "résolu" avant 2008 par la demande intérieure qui suscitait la création d'emplois dans le secteur non exportateur (fonction publique, santé, construction, commerce de détail).

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