增长的真正挑战

米兰—发达经济体自2008年金融危机以来的经历掀起了一场关于增长、就业和收入不平等性的快速演变的讨论。这并不奇怪:对那些期待相对较快的危机后复苏的人来说,事情越是没有变化,他们就越需要变化。

在金融系统几乎崩溃后不久,随着资产负债表伤害——以及去杠杆化对内需造成的冲击——的逐渐显现,认为会出现常规周期性复苏的一致观点逐渐失去了市场。但是,即使在去杠杆化已成如火如荼之势的今天,对增长和就业的积极效应仍然无法令人满意。在美国,GDP增长率仍大大低于迄今所认为的潜在增长率,欧洲更是处于负增长中。

就业仍然萎靡不振,并在拖累GDP增长,这一趋势至少在三次衰退前就已经出现,并在此后的每一次复苏中表现得更加明显。在大部分发达经济体,可贸易部门对就业增长的贡献极为有限。在2008年以前,这一问题被内需“解决”解决了——不可贸易部门(政府、医疗、建筑和零售业)雇用了大量工人。

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